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Analysis: After Juan Soto's megadeal, could MLB see a $1 billion contract? Probably not soon For the second straight Major League Baseball offseason, a norm-shattering contract has been the talk of the winter , with Juan Soto agreeing with the New York Mets on a $765 million, 15-year deal that's the richest in baseball history. David Brandt, The Associated Press Dec 10, 2024 2:35 PM Dec 10, 2024 2:50 PM Share by Email Share on Facebook Share on X Share on LinkedIn Print Share via Text Message FILE - New York Yankees' Juan Soto talks with agent Scott Boras before Game 1 of the baseball World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Friday, Oct. 25, 2024, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez, File) For the second straight Major League Baseball offseason, a norm-shattering contract has been the talk of the winter , with Juan Soto agreeing with the New York Mets on a $765 million, 15-year deal that's the richest in baseball history. It comes almost exactly one year after the Los Angeles Dodgers forked out a princely sum of $700 million on a 10-year, heavily deferred deal for two-way Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani. They are believed to be the two richest contracts in pro sports history. The way it's going, a contract approaching $1 billion doesn't seem out of the question. But several factors are working against it — at least in the near future. There's reason to believe the megadeals for Ohtani and Soto are unicorns in the baseball world. Both players are uniquely talented, surely, but both also had unusual circumstances propelling their value into the stratosphere. Ohtani is the greatest two-way player in baseball history, capable of improving any team on both sides of the ball. He's also the rare baseball player who has true international appeal . His every move ( like his unexpected marriage announcement ) is followed closely in his native Japan, adding another 125 million potential fans who buy merchandise, watch him play and help fill the Dodgers' coffers. Then there's Soto — a four-time All-Star and on-base machine who won a World Series with the Washington Nationals in 2019. The X-factor for him is he became a free agent at the prime age of 26, which is extremely hard to do under current MLB rules. Players have to be in the big leagues for six years before testing free agency. The precocious Soto debuted at 19 with the Nats, making him part of a rare group of players who reached the highest level of professional baseball as a teenager. That accelerated his free agency timeline. It's rare for players to debut that young, and rarer still for them to develop into stars and test the open market the first chance they get. Two recent examples are Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, who both reached free agency in 2019. Machado signed a free-agent record $300 million contract with San Diego, and Harper overtook him days later with a $330 million contract to join the Phillies. Most players debut in the big leagues from ages 22 to 26, which means free agency comes in their late 20s or early 30s. A typical example is Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, who is one of this generation's great players but didn't hit the market until he was 30. Judge played three seasons of college baseball for Fresno State before getting drafted by the Yankees in 2013 at age 21 — already two years older than Soto was when he made his MLB debut. It took a few years for the budding superstar to reach the majors, and he was 25 when he had his breakout season in 2018, smashing 52 homers to earn AL Rookie of the Year honors. By the time he reached free agency after the 2022 season, he had already passed age 30. It's a major factor that led to him signing a $360 million, nine-year deal with the Yankees, which seems downright reasonable these days after the Ohtani and Soto deals. Two major trends are colliding that will make it harder for guys like Soto to hit free agency in their mid 20s. First, MLB teams have been more likely in recent years to take college players early in the draft, betting on more experienced talents. Just 10 high school players were drafted among the top 30 picks in the 2024 draft . Second, teams are more eager to lock up young, premium talent on long-term deals very early in their careers, well before they hit free agency. Sometimes before they even reach the majors. Since Soto, just two players have debuted in MLB before their 20th birthday — Elvis Luciano and Junior Caminero. Luciano hasn't been back to the majors since his 2019 cup of coffee. Caminero is now 21 and has only played in 50 big league games. Among those that debuted at 20: Fernando Tatis Jr. signed a $340 million, 14-year deal with San Diego in 2021, years before reaching the open market. Milwaukee's Jackson Chourio got an $82 million, eight-year deal before even reaching the big leagues. Young stars Corbin Carroll ($111 million, eight years with Arizona), Bobby Witt Jr. ($288 million, 11 years with Kansas City) and Julio Rodriguez ($209.3 million, 12 years with Seattle) also got massive guarantees early in their 20s to forgo an early free agency. The exception and wild card: Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be a 26-year-old free agent next offseason. Guerrero hasn't been as consistent in his young career as Soto, but a standout 2025 season could position him to threaten Soto's deal. More likely is that the player to pass Soto isn't in the majors yet — and might not even be in pro baseball. When 25-year-old Alex Rodriguez signed his record $252 million, 10-year deal with Texas in 2001, it took over a decade for another player to match that total, when Albert Pujols got $240 million over 10 years from the Angels in 2012. For many players, passing up life-changing money in their early or mid 20s is too enticing, even if it means that they might not maximize their value on the free agent market later in their careers. Soto was determined to test the market. He famously turned down a $440 million, 15-year offer to stay with the Washington Nationals in 2022, betting that he could make even more as a free agent. Not many players would turn down that kind of cash. Then again, that's what makes Soto so unique. And it's also why his $765 million deal could be the industry standard for some time. ___ AP MLB: https://apnews.com/hub/mlb David Brandt, The Associated Press See a typo/mistake? Have a story/tip? This has been shared 0 times 0 Shares Share by Email Share on Facebook Share on X Share on LinkedIn Print Share via Text Message Get your daily Victoria news briefing Email Sign Up More Baseball Left-hander Max Fried agrees to $218 million, 8-year contract with Yankees, AP source says Dec 10, 2024 3:07 PM Shortstop Willy Adames and San Francisco Giants finalize $182 million, 7-year contract Dec 10, 2024 3:01 PM Nolan Arenado open to switch from third base to first and leaving Cardinals for a team he approves Dec 10, 2024 2:05 PM

Trump trolea en redes sociales a Justin Trudeau y a Jill BidenSocialist dictator Nicolás Maduro claimed on Monday that the Venezuelan opposition, which he described as representing “fascist extremism,” wants to stage a civil war in the country similar to that of Syria. Maduro was a longtime ally of former Syrian dictator Bashar Assad and remains close to Assad’s former patrons in Iran and Russia. Assad fled to Russia over the weekend with his family shortly after Sunni jihadists from the al-Qaeda offshoot Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) terrorist organization entered Damascus, marking the end of his over two-decade-old authoritarian regime. His father Hafez Assad ruled the country for about 30 years before his son took over. Maduro, whose regime maintained ideological ties and a shared anti-U.S. stance with Assad’s, made the assertions during an official event commemorating the 200th anniversary of the Battle of Ayacucho . “We are observing the development of painful circumstances for the people of Syria. Now, the shameless [members] of fascist extremism are coming out to ask for a civil war to be waged in Venezuela as well,” Maduro said . “I tell you: Make no mistake, because the people of Venezuela, in perfect fusion, popular-military-police, will triumph through the path of peace. And in Venezuela there will be peace, stability, national union, and the Constitution will prevail,” he continued . According to Maduro, “every time there is an event in the world,” the U.S. “empire” and the Venezuelan opposition want to replicate it in Venezuela. Maduro, and virtually every member of his top brass, have spent the past two decades repeatedly accusing the United States and the Venezuelan opposition of conspiring together to topple the Venezuelan socialist regime. The Venezuelan socialists repeated their accusations in recent months following Maduro’s fraudulent July 28 presidential election, which he insists he “won” for a new six-year presidential term slated to begin on January 10, 2025. The Maduro regime used the conspiracy accusations to justify the arrest of several American citizens who, according to regime officials, were allegedly plotting to assassinate Maduro or carry out other “terrorist” attacks in Venezuela. Neither Maduro, nor any member of his regime, has presented evidence that can substantiate the accusations. The Venezuelan socialist regime maintained close friendly ties with Assad’s now-deposed regime that began in the days of late dictator Hugo Chávez, as both dictators bonded over their shared anti-U.S. sentiments. Chávez and Assad visited each other in 2010. Chávez awarded Assad during his visit to Caracas and gifted him with a replica of the sword of Venezuelan independence hero Simón Bolivar. The late socialist dictator reaffirmed his support of Assad in remarks given to international reporters in October 2012. Maduro continued to reinforce the bilateral relationship after he succeeded Chávez, who died of an undisclosed type of cancer in 2013. Last year, both regimes held talks together with Iran for the construction of an oil refinery in the Syrian town of Homs that, if built, would have yielded profits for all three regimes and, in the case of Iran, would have likely helped fund international terrorism. Last week, days before Assad’s ouster, Maduro held a telephone conversation with Assad in which the Venezuelan dictator pledged his support to Assad’s regime “in the face of terrorist actions” and Syria’s “fight against terrorism and its sponsoring countries.” Assad was ousted over the weekend, fleeing to Russia with his family, where he received political asylum from Russian strongman Vladimir Putin. On Tuesday, the Maduro regime released a statement claiming that it is “closely following” the events in Syria — without making any mention of Assad’s ouster nor his arrival to Russia. Instead, the Venezuelan socialist regime expressed its desire that “this brotherly people may find a path towards the peaceful resolution of their differences, without external interference or the use of violence as a mechanism to address political conflicts.” “Venezuela reiterates its commitment to the preservation of the territorial unity of Syria, as well as the defense of its sovereignty, independence and absolute respect for the values enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations, with special emphasis on the preservation of the civil, political and human rights of its entire population, without distinction of any kind,” the statement read. “This includes the protection and peaceful coexistence of the diverse religious, cultural and ethnic expressions that enrich the identity of that country, Cradle of Civilizations,” the statement continued. Christian K. Caruzo is a Venezuelan writer and documents life under socialism. You can follow him on Twitter here .

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